Communicating forecast uncertainty to decision makers

A point forecast implies precision that rarely exists. Decision makers who plan around a single figure are surprised when reality differs, even when the forecast was reasonable.

Prediction intervals, fan charts and scenario sets each suit different audiences. Intervals are compact; scenarios are intuitive for planners; probability of exceeding a threshold maps directly to a decision rule.

A stated 80 percent interval should contain the outcome roughly 80 percent of the time. Calibration should be monitored and reported, since poorly calibrated uncertainty is worse than none.